Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$30.2

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 94.7¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$587.89

Total Shares10,733

Combined PnL-$21.78

No5 traders

Total Value$622.82

Total Shares659

Combined PnL-$8.42

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$497.51	$377.36	-$120.15	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
TY Tysha	Noavg 96.4¢	$192.82	$189.12	-$3.7	72% 8554-3325 (11879)
Lucerys	Noavg 95.2¢	$182.07	$181.01	-$1.06	79% 10621-2765 (13386)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 94.9¢	$137.69	$137.12	-$0.57	42% 5989-8172 (14161)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$78.71	$125.5	+$46.8	—
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$90.16	$87.19	-$2.97	50% 7813-7864 (15677)
NO notgoodluckCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$23.77	$63.7	+$35.12	62% 213-133 (346)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$28.38	-$0.12	53% 8926-7971 (16897)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.07	$21.07	+$16.31	72% 6934-2740 (9674)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.09	$0.26	+$0.15	52% 1668-1539 (3207)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$497.51

Value

$377.36

PnL

-$120.15

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

Tysha

Invested

$192.82

Value

$189.12

PnL

-$3.7

Record

72%

8554-3325 (11879)

Lucerys

Invested

$182.07

Value

$181.01

PnL

-$1.06

Record

79%

10621-2765 (13386)

godblessme2026

Invested

$137.69

Value

$137.12

PnL

-$0.57

Record

42%

5989-8172 (14161)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$78.71

Value

$125.5

PnL

+$46.8

Record

—

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$90.16

Value

$87.19

PnL

-$2.97

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

notgoodluckCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.77

Value

$63.7

PnL

+$35.12

Record

62%

213-133 (346)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$28.38

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

8926-7971 (16897)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$16.31

Record

72%

6934-2740 (9674)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

1668-1539 (3207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.