Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 85¢ · $637 held · ends Nov 4

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$637.3

Combined PnL

$10.22

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 85.4¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$517.81

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$1.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$119.49

Total Shares872

Combined PnL+$8.77

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XAE12Archangel	Noavg 88.8¢	$444	$431.5	+$1.75	66% 784-407 (1191)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$86.61	$86.31	-$0.3	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
FE fendopCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.4¢	$75.58	$77.27	+$1.69	— 9-4 (13)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$10.93	$21.4	+$6.01	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
NO notgoodluckCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$19.76	$20.82	+$1.06	61% 212-133 (345)

XAE12Archangel

Invested

$444

Value

$431.5

PnL

+$1.75

Record

66%

784-407 (1191)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$86.61

Value

$86.31

PnL

-$0.3

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

fendopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.58

Value

$77.27

PnL

+$1.69

Record

—

9-4 (13)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.93

Value

$21.4

PnL

+$6.01

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

notgoodluckCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.76

Value

$20.82

PnL

+$1.06

Record

61%

212-133 (345)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.8%

85.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.