Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 33¢ · $461 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$461.3
$98
24.3¢ → 33¢
+36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 33%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletinCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $130 | $165 | +$37.5 | 69% 971-442 (1413) |
CO cocococococo | Noavg 65¢ | $109.92 | $114.99 | +$1.69 | 52% 1642-1518 (3160) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $64.24 | $102.56 | +$38.32 | 73% 2653-967 (3620) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $59.52 | $78.75 | +$20.48 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
bernardbulletinCTRInvested
$130
Value
$165
PnL
+$37.5
Record
69%
971-442 (1413)
Invested
$109.92
Value
$114.99
PnL
+$1.69
Record
52%
1642-1518 (3160)
viniiCTRInvested
$64.24
Value
$102.56
PnL
+$38.32
Record
73%
2653-967 (3620)
Invested
$59.52
Value
$78.75
PnL
+$20.48
Record
36%
14490-25940 (40430)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.