Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 77¢ · $256 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$255.52
-$28.98
74.9¢ → 77¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
671h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 76¢ | $127.89 | $129.58 | +$0 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $103.72 | $62.26 | -$32.49 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $56.22 | $59.75 | +$3.53 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.52 | $3.47 | -$0.05 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $0.44 | $0.46 | +$0.02 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
Invested
$127.89
Value
$129.58
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$103.72
Value
$62.26
PnL
-$32.49
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$56.22
Value
$59.75
PnL
+$3.53
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.46
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.