Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 6% or more?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

18¢ → 93.7¢

+422% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,415

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

141h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 6.6¢	$88.21	$780.45	+$692.25	— 3-5 (8)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Yesavg 36¢	$68.13	$183.48	+$115.35	7% 3-38 (41)
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 7.9¢	$11.42	$139.97	+$128.55	— 2-17 (19)
balthazar	Yesavg 6.1¢	$12.88	$135.72	+$122.84	56% 49-38 (87)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 97.2¢	$104.55	$104.6	+$0.05	57% 16-12 (28)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$1.48	$19.86	+$18.37	39% 179-277 (456)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Yesavg 98.9¢	$14.56	$7.05	-$0.14	9% 4-39 (43)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$88.21

Value

$780.45

PnL

+$692.25

Record

—

3-5 (8)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Yes

Invested

$68.13

Value

$183.48

PnL

+$115.35

Record

3-38 (41)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$11.42

Value

$139.97

PnL

+$128.55

Record

—

2-17 (19)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$12.88

Value

$135.72

PnL

+$122.84

Record

56%

49-38 (87)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$104.55

Value

$104.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.48

Value

$19.86

PnL

+$18.37

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.56

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.14

Record

4-39 (43)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

141h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.