Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 SC-06 House election by 30%-35%?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 27¢ · $88 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$87.86
$29.34
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $34.93 | $34.93 | -$0.12 | — 9-6 (15) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $12.54 | $26.74 | +$14.2 | — 1-0 (1) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $10.92 | $26.19 | +$15.27 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.