Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 9%-12%?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 22¢ · $222 held · ended Nov 4

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$222.01

Combined PnL

$40.18

Smart Money Entry

15.9¢ → 21.9¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$192.56

Total Shares784

Combined PnL+$41.39

No1 trader

Total Value$29.44

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$1.21

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$10.46	$50.92	+$13.42	19% 2917-12377 (15294)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$119.61	$50.75	-$10.43	45% 3009-3702 (6711)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$18.66	$39.28	+$13.35	82% 23-5 (28)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$31.29	$29.44	-$1.21	53% 8621-7707 (16328)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$9.81	$21.79	+$12.4	50% 1759-1780 (3539)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$11.65	$11.65	+$7.9	67% 27580-13871 (41451)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.9¢	$11.41	$9.81	-$1.6	56% 721-568 (1289)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.03	$8.37	+$6.34	36% 102-180 (282)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.46

Value

$50.92

PnL

+$13.42

Record

19%

2917-12377 (15294)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$119.61

Value

$50.75

PnL

-$10.43

Record

45%

3009-3702 (6711)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.66

Value

$39.28

PnL

+$13.35

Record

82%

23-5 (28)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$31.29

Value

$29.44

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

8621-7707 (16328)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.81

Value

$21.79

PnL

+$12.4

Record

50%

1759-1780 (3539)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.65

Value

$11.65

PnL

+$7.9

Record

67%

27580-13871 (41451)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.41

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$1.6

Record

56%

721-568 (1289)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.03

Value

$8.37

PnL

+$6.34

Record

36%

102-180 (282)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.6%

21.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$324.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

424.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.