Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $968 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$968.16
$77.02
64.3¢ → 73.4¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 63.9¢ | $596.17 | $680.54 | +$84.37 | 53% 1129-1013 (2142) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 70.7¢ | $238.25 | $198.61 | -$27.55 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.7¢ | $141.4 | $146.01 | +$4.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.5¢ | $77 | $52.6 | -$32.1 | |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 71.1¢ | $33.75 | $34.65 | +$1.14 | 36% 2042-3643 (5685) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $39.23 | $32.7 | +$0.86 | 53% 6477-5678 (12155) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $31.55 | $21.66 | -$9.35 | 70% 3143-1354 (4497) |
Invested
$596.17
Value
$680.54
PnL
+$84.37
Record
53%
1129-1013 (2142)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$238.25
Value
$198.61
PnL
-$27.55
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.75
Value
$34.65
PnL
+$1.14
Record
36%
2042-3643 (5685)
Invested
$39.23
Value
$32.7
PnL
+$0.86
Record
53%
6477-5678 (12155)
Invested
$31.55
Value
$21.66
PnL
-$9.35
Record
70%
3143-1354 (4497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.