Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 15%-20%?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 84¢ · $905 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$905.3
$243.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $765.7 | $831.09 | +$65.39 | — 7-5 (12) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $271.75 | $50.01 | +$191.03 | — 1-0 (1) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $18.48 | $10.89 | -$7.59 | 17% 1028-5005 (6033) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $12.99 | $5.8 | -$3.34 | 30% 1409-3213 (4622) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $3.91 | $3.8 | -$0.11 | 21% 2286-8721 (11007) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $5.86 | $3.72 | -$1.92 | 24% 667-2099 (2766) |
Invested
$765.7
Value
$831.09
PnL
+$65.39
Record
—
7-5 (12)
fkpaCTRInvested
$271.75
Value
$50.01
PnL
+$191.03
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$18.48
Value
$10.89
PnL
-$7.59
Record
17%
1028-5005 (6033)
Invested
$12.99
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$3.34
Record
30%
1409-3213 (4622)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.11
Record
21%
2286-8721 (11007)
Invested
$5.86
Value
$3.72
PnL
-$1.92
Record
24%
667-2099 (2766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.