Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 12% or more?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$39.32

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 98.4¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,532

Combined PnL+$125.4

Yes4 traders

Total Value$27.02

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL-$164.72

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 88.3¢	$2.3K	$976.74	+$99.16	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
Istaroth	Noavg 89.1¢	$262.42	$255.34	-$4.82	14% 503-3047 (3550)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 82.3¢	$122	$119.87	+$19.46	71% 7187-2925 (10112)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$88.02	$88.43	+$0.41	61% 16011-10320 (26331)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$5.12	$34.34	+$6.76	47% 1706-1890 (3596)
thanksforplayin<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$21.27	$25.24	+$3.97	56% 606-468 (1074)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$74.55	$12.76	-$61.79	30% 68-160 (228)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 87¢	$10	$9.83	+$0.47	44% 2227-2867 (5094)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$493	$8.63	-$4.83	59% 3791-2625 (6416)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.7¢	$99.44	$4.38	-$95.06	54% 116-97 (213)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$79.17	$1.25	-$3.04	— 7-9 (16)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$2,252.96

Value

$976.74

PnL

+$99.16

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

Istaroth

Invested

$262.42

Value

$255.34

PnL

-$4.82

Record

14%

503-3047 (3550)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$122

Value

$119.87

PnL

+$19.46

Record

71%

7187-2925 (10112)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$88.02

Value

$88.43

PnL

+$0.41

Record

61%

16011-10320 (26331)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$34.34

PnL

+$6.76

Record

47%

1706-1890 (3596)

thanksforplayin<$100

Invested

$21.27

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$3.97

Record

56%

606-468 (1074)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.55

Value

$12.76

PnL

-$61.79

Record

30%

68-160 (228)

123987456<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$0.47

Record

44%

2227-2867 (5094)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$493

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$4.83

Record

59%

3791-2625 (6416)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.44

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$95.06

Record

54%

116-97 (213)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.17

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$3.04

Record

—

7-9 (16)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.