Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-09 House election by 3%-6%?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$808.59

Smart Money Entry

20.6¢ → 74¢

+260% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,415

Combined PnL+$813.74

No1 trader

Total Value$2.6

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$5.15

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yesavg 16.5¢	$251.04	$458.62	+$356.24	32% 8-17 (25)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 24.9¢	$50.81	$273.15	+$199.54	45% 2965-3662 (6627)
probability	Yesavg 15¢	$9.66	$125.56	+$115.9	40% 1565-2380 (3945)
RayGuy<$100	Yes	$74	$74	+$71.92	85% 23-4 (27)
HolyMoses7<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$28.99	$37	+$9.5	50% 1753-1779 (3532)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$24.6	$29.6	+$15	19% 2858-12194 (15052)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yes	$28.95	$28.95	+$26.53	67% 27461-13817 (41278)
DO donthackme<$100	Yes	$20.25	$20.25	+$19.11	68% 13184-6208 (19392)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.83	$2.6	-$5.15	31% 4457-9735 (14192)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Yes

Invested

$251.04

Value

$458.62

PnL

+$356.24

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$50.81

Value

$273.15

PnL

+$199.54

Record

45%

2965-3662 (6627)

probability

Yes

Invested

$9.66

Value

$125.56

PnL

+$115.9

Record

40%

1565-2380 (3945)

RayGuy<$100

Yes

Invested

$74

Value

$74

PnL

+$71.92

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

HolyMoses7<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.99

Value

$37

PnL

+$9.5

Record

50%

1753-1779 (3532)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.6

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$15

Record

19%

2858-12194 (15052)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.95

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$26.53

Record

67%

27461-13817 (41278)

donthackme<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.25

Value

$20.25

PnL

+$19.11

Record

68%

13184-6208 (19392)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Invested

$7.83

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$5.15

Record

31%

4457-9735 (14192)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.8%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.