Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-26 House election by 40%-45%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $192 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$192.35
$10.15
74.1¢ → 98¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
64h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 68.2¢ | $112.73 | $111.75 | -$0.23 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $37.7 | $21.55 | -$16.15 | 18% 4425-20750 (25175) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $20 | $19.6 | +$1.6 | — 7-10 (17) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $16.52 | $19.6 | +$3.2 | 56% 616-478 (1094) |
 RayGuy<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $19.03 | $18.65 | +$2.85 | 84% 21-4 (25) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $4.23 | $1.2 | +$18.87 | 59% 3792-2625 (6417) |
IstarothInvested
$112.73
Value
$111.75
PnL
-$0.23
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$37.7
Value
$21.55
PnL
-$16.15
Record
18%
4425-20750 (25175)
Invested
$20
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$1.6
Record
—
7-10 (17)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$16.52
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$3.2
Record
56%
616-478 (1094)
RayGuy<$100Invested
$19.03
Value
$18.65
PnL
+$2.85
Record
84%
21-4 (25)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$18.87
Record
59%
3792-2625 (6417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.