Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-07 House election by 65%-70%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$82.19
-$21.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $37.3 | $35 | -$2.3 | 60% 3216-2157 (5373) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $26.75 | $30.46 | +$3.71 | 61% 20509-12859 (33368) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $36.65 | $15.63 | -$21.01 | — 1-0 (1) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $3 | $1.1 | -$1.9 | 18% 3764-16688 (20452) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.