Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-07 House election by 40%-45%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 20¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$167.01
-$11.33
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $83.01 | $87.21 | +$4.2 | — |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $2.65 | $57.76 | -$2.15 | 59% 3638-2528 (6166) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $21.09 | $22.03 | -$13.38 | 55% 5004-4065 (9069) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.