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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 15%-20%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
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Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes26%
No75%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance27.3%
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$266.58
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
366.6
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xc61008cb...33b6ec
Slug
will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-ny-04-house-election-by-15-20