Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.4K
$107
18¢ → 23.2¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
202h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cookiejarCTR | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $716.22 | $836.67 | +$120.45 | 69% 178-80 (258) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 85.6¢ | $437.94 | $303.22 | -$28 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
 StarMasterCTR | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $123.09 | $111.5 | -$11.59 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $70.81 | $93.55 | +$22.73 | 59% 3430-2345 (5775) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 75.3¢ | $101.9 | $72.58 | +$3.4 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
cookiejarCTRInvested
$716.22
Value
$836.67
PnL
+$120.45
Record
69%
178-80 (258)
IstarothInvested
$437.94
Value
$303.22
PnL
-$28
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
StarMasterCTRInvested
$123.09
Value
$111.5
PnL
-$11.59
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$70.81
Value
$93.55
PnL
+$22.73
Record
59%
3430-2345 (5775)
Invested
$101.9
Value
$72.58
PnL
+$3.4
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.