Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 12%-15%?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 27¢ · $490 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$490.36
$223.12
11.4¢ → 27.4¢
+140% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $74.51 | $250.88 | +$176.37 | 60% 3221-2161 (5382) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $136.17 | $190.96 | +$54.79 | 42% 63-87 (150) |
 cookiejarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $31.07 | $27.43 | -$3.64 | 69% 178-80 (258) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $20.64 | $21.1 | -$4.39 | 52% 1643-1519 (3162) |
Invested
$74.51
Value
$250.88
PnL
+$176.37
Record
60%
3221-2161 (5382)
Invested
$136.17
Value
$190.96
PnL
+$54.79
Record
42%
63-87 (150)
cookiejarCTR<$100Invested
$31.07
Value
$27.43
PnL
-$3.64
Record
69%
178-80 (258)
Invested
$20.64
Value
$21.1
PnL
-$4.39
Record
52%
1643-1519 (3162)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.