Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 47¢ · $306 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$306.02
$17.55
42.9¢ → 47¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI singularitymanCTR | Yesavg 41.6¢ | $159.87 | $178.56 | +$18.69 | 42% 137-192 (329) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $50.5 | $50 | -$0.5 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $26.5 | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48¢ | $24 | $23.5 | -$0.5 | |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $45.76 | $44.6 | -$1.16 | 60% 3323-2227 (5550) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $32.84 | $32.86 | +$0.02 | 18% 526-2359 (2885) |
Invested
$159.87
Value
$178.56
PnL
+$18.69
Record
42%
137-192 (329)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.5
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.76
Value
$44.6
PnL
-$1.16
Record
60%
3323-2227 (5550)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$32.84
Value
$32.86
PnL
+$0.02
Record
18%
526-2359 (2885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.