Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 6%-9%?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 96¢ · $538 held · ended Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$537.75

Combined PnL

$58.03

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 96.1¢

+38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$515.54

Total Shares535

Combined PnL+$145.22

Yes4 traders

Total Value$22.21

Total Shares626

Combined PnL-$87.19

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Noavg 67.2¢	$246.82	$354.41	+$110.87	55% 117-97 (214)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 78¢	$100.62	$125.17	+$23.5	69% 7246-3214 (10460)
thanksforplayin<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$25.31	$35.96	+$10.85	56% 719-567 (1286)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$86.05	$15.8	-$70.26	45% 3009-3702 (6711)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$13.47	$3.37	-$10.1	47% 4083-4641 (8724)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$10	$1.69	-$8.14	36% 102-180 (282)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.04	$1.35	+$1.31	82% 23-5 (28)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Invested

$246.82

Value

$354.41

PnL

+$110.87

Record

55%

117-97 (214)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$100.62

Value

$125.17

PnL

+$23.5

Record

69%

7246-3214 (10460)

thanksforplayin<$100

Invested

$25.31

Value

$35.96

PnL

+$10.85

Record

56%

719-567 (1286)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$86.05

Value

$15.8

PnL

-$70.26

Record

45%

3009-3702 (6711)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$3.37

PnL

-$10.1

Record

47%

4083-4641 (8724)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$8.14

Record

36%

102-180 (282)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$1.31

Record

82%

23-5 (28)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.