Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 6%-9%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $395 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$394.51
$103.48
67.2¢ → 96.1¢
+43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $246.82 | $353.12 | +$110.87 | 55% 117-97 (214) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $25.31 | $35.83 | +$10.85 | 56% 719-567 (1286) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $13.8 | $3.71 | -$10.1 | 47% 4084-4642 (8726) |
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $10 | $1.86 | -$8.14 | 36% 102-180 (282) |
Invested
$246.82
Value
$353.12
PnL
+$110.87
Record
55%
117-97 (214)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$25.31
Value
$35.83
PnL
+$10.85
Record
56%
719-567 (1286)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$3.71
PnL
-$10.1
Record
47%
4084-4642 (8726)
Invested
$10
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$8.14
Record
36%
102-180 (282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.