Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 12%-15%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 64¢ · $290 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
1 arb excluded
$289.94
$52.48
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+16 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $136.24 | $125 | -$1.26 | 14% 503-3047 (3550) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $26.12 | $86.75 | +$59.74 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.4¢ | $99.25 | $38.25 | -$61 | |
SH shiifoo | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $125 | $69.4 | +$30.5 | 59% 3791-2625 (6416) |
RA RadioCCOD<$100 | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $10 | $43.65 | +$33.65 | 30% 68-160 (228) |
 RayGuyCTR | Noavg 61.1¢ | $100 | $30.6 | -$30.5 | 84% 21-4 (25) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $2.06 | $18.53 | +$16.47 | 20% 2762-10914 (13676) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $0.09 | $1.38 | +$1.08 | 61% 16011-10320 (26331) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $0.09 | $1.38 | +$1.29 | 50% 9890-9904 (19794) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$136.24
Value
$125
PnL
-$1.26
Record
14%
503-3047 (3550)
Both legs:
Invested
$125
Value
$69.4
PnL
+$30.5
Record
59%
3791-2625 (6416)
Invested
$10
Value
$43.65
PnL
+$33.65
Record
30%
68-160 (228)
RayGuyCTRInvested
$100
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$30.5
Record
84%
21-4 (25)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
$18.53
PnL
+$16.47
Record
20%
2762-10914 (13676)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$1.08
Record
61%
16011-10320 (26331)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$1.29
Record
50%
9890-9904 (19794)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.