Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 3%-6%?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 71¢ · $695 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$694.72
$499.98
26.4¢ → 70.9¢
+168% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
126h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $147.48 | $380.94 | +$233.45 | 38% 1810-2980 (4790) |
RA RadioCCOD<$100 | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $13.28 | $88.58 | +$75.3 | 36% 105-187 (292) |
 Chungvicular<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $11.36 | $83.48 | +$71.24 | 47% 91-102 (193) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $13.54 | $75.51 | +$61.97 | 14% 9536-61063 (70599) |
 tunatyler<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $8.2 | $66.22 | +$58.02 | 57% 990-735 (1725) |
probabilityInvested
$147.48
Value
$380.94
PnL
+$233.45
Record
38%
1810-2980 (4790)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$88.58
PnL
+$75.3
Record
36%
105-187 (292)
Chungvicular<$100Invested
$11.36
Value
$83.48
PnL
+$71.24
Record
47%
91-102 (193)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$13.54
Value
$75.51
PnL
+$61.97
Record
14%
9536-61063 (70599)
tunatyler<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$66.22
PnL
+$58.02
Record
57%
990-735 (1725)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.