Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 0%-3%?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $75 held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$75.22

Combined PnL

-$37.19

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$68.15

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$10.31

Yes4 traders

Total Value$7.07

Total Shares486

Combined PnL-$47.5

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

168h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$57.84	$68.15	+$10.31	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$20.77	$3.92	-$16.85	38% 1810-2980 (4790)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$14.24	$1.43	-$12.82	36% 105-187 (292)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9.8	$1.42	-$8.38	55% 1477-1199 (2676)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.8¢	$9.76	$0.31	-$9.45	77% 30-9 (39)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$57.84

Value

$68.15

PnL

+$10.31

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.77

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$16.85

Record

38%

1810-2980 (4790)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.24

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$12.82

Record

36%

105-187 (292)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.8

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$8.38

Record

55%

1477-1199 (2676)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.76

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$9.45

Record

77%

30-9 (39)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

168h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3749.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

3849.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.