Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$5.0K
$316.49
90.8¢ → 97.8¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 89.1¢ | $3.6K | $3.9K | +$313.29 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 96.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$3.2 | — 7-2 (9) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.