Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 65%-70%?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 97¢ · $776 held · ended Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$776.04

Combined PnL

$261.48

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 97.3¢

+174% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$775.45

Total Shares846

Combined PnL+$260.78

No1 trader

Total Value$0.59

Total Shares21

Combined PnL+$0.7

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

150h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yesavg 57.3¢	$335.49	$326.1	-$24.55	45% 17-21 (38)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 23.2¢	$55.58	$233.28	+$177.7	57% 21-16 (37)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 12.6¢	$63.43	$103.03	+$39.6	48% 5218-5762 (10980)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$19.83	$50.46	+$30.63	55% 1477-1199 (2676)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$18.33	$49.95	+$31.9	15% 5011-29434 (34445)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$7.14	$12.64	+$5.49	30% 2958-6851 (9809)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 46.7¢	$21	$0.59	+$0.7	25% 697-2085 (2782)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Yes

Invested

$335.49

Value

$326.1

PnL

-$24.55

Record

45%

17-21 (38)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$55.58

Value

$233.28

PnL

+$177.7

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$63.43

Value

$103.03

PnL

+$39.6

Record

48%

5218-5762 (10980)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.83

Value

$50.46

PnL

+$30.63

Record

55%

1477-1199 (2676)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.33

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$31.9

Record

15%

5011-29434 (34445)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.14

Value

$12.64

PnL

+$5.49

Record

30%

2958-6851 (9809)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.7

Record

25%

697-2085 (2782)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

150h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.