Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 81¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$4.7K
$8.71
79.1¢ → 81¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$52.12 | 71% 60-24 (84) |
 BiDiFakePolls | Yesavg 85¢ | $425 | $397.5 | -$27.5 | 58% 181-132 (313) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | No | $120.46 | $120.46 | -$13.23 | 50% 1657-1652 (3309) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 79.9¢ | $96.23 | $94.98 | -$2.68 | 39% 168-258 (426) |
Invested
$3,922.91
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$52.12
Record
71%
60-24 (84)
BiDiFakePollsInvested
$425
Value
$397.5
PnL
-$27.5
Record
58%
181-132 (313)
Invested
$120.46
Value
$120.46
PnL
-$13.23
Record
50%
1657-1652 (3309)
Invested
$96.23
Value
$94.98
PnL
-$2.68
Record
39%
168-258 (426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.