Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 3%-6%?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 75¢ · $836 held · ends Nov 4

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$836.07

Combined PnL

$192.66

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$452.83

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$8.62

Yes2 traders

Total Value$301.15

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL+$184.04

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 75¢	$100.5	$452.83	+$8.62	74% 6669-2386 (9055)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$116.84	$300.8	+$183.96	60% 3346-2256 (5602)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$82.84	$82.09	-$0.04	20% 312-1280 (1592)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.1¢	$62.44	$61.57	-$0.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$19.66	$20.52	+$0.86
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.28	$0.35	+$0.08	62% 45-28 (73)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$100.5

Value

$452.83

PnL

+$8.62

Record

74%

6669-2386 (9055)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.84

Value

$300.8

PnL

+$183.96

Record

60%

3346-2256 (5602)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$82.84

Value

$82.09

PnL

-$0.04

Record

20%

312-1280 (1592)

Both legs:

No$62.4476.1¢-$0.89

Yes$19.6624¢+$0.86

Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.08

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.7%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.