Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$87.55

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 89¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$947.15

Total Shares1,058

Combined PnL+$115.5

No2 traders

Total Value$55.58

Total Shares505

Combined PnL-$27.95

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 79.2¢	$690.38	$775.33	+$102.38	61% 209-133 (342)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 83.5¢	$158.7	$171.82	+$13.12	45% 2406-2976 (5382)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$72.89	$55.11	-$27.8	49% 1246-1273 (2519)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$0.62	$0.47	-$0.15	37% 205-356 (561)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$690.38

Value

$775.33

PnL

+$102.38

Record

61%

209-133 (342)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$158.7

Value

$171.82

PnL

+$13.12

Record

45%

2406-2976 (5382)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Invested

$72.89

Value

$55.11

PnL

-$27.8

Record

49%

1246-1273 (2519)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$0.15

Record

37%

205-356 (561)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.4%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.