Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-03 House election by 15%-20%?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 53¢ · $359 held · ended Nov 4

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$359.43

Combined PnL

$126.11

Smart Money Entry

20.2¢ → 52.5¢

+160% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$283.08

Total Shares539

Combined PnL+$121.61

No1 trader

Total Value$14.25

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$4.5

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 23.6¢	$52.22	$116	+$63.77	55% 17-14 (31)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$72.04	$75.43	+$3.39	41% 14-20 (34)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$59.68	$62.1	+$2.42	17% 4501-22036 (26537)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.9¢	$14.68	$33.6	+$18.92
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$45	$28.5	-$16.5
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.66	$40.95	+$30.65	45% 2992-3689 (6681)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 38.1¢	$19.98	$22.3	+$2.31	56% 711-563 (1274)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$2.23	$16.33	+$14.1	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$10.8	$14.25	+$4.5	27% 598-1657 (2255)
Anjun<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$3.15	$7.88	+$4.2	55% 5188-4275 (9463)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.09	$4.21	+$3.18	67% 27537-13843 (41380)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$52.22

Value

$116

PnL

+$63.77

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.04

Value

$75.43

PnL

+$3.39

Record

41%

14-20 (34)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$59.68

Value

$62.1

PnL

+$2.42

Record

17%

4501-22036 (26537)

Both legs:

Yes$14.6822.9¢+$18.92

No$4575¢-$16.5

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$40.95

PnL

+$30.65

Record

45%

2992-3689 (6681)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.98

Value

$22.3

PnL

+$2.31

Record

56%

711-563 (1274)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$16.33

PnL

+$14.1

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$4.5

Record

27%

598-1657 (2255)

Anjun<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$4.2

Record

55%

5188-4275 (9463)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$3.18

Record

67%

27537-13843 (41380)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.5%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$83.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

183.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.