Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (50%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KY-03 House election by 40%-45%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 50¢ · $189 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$188.87
-$62.19
72.7¢ → 49.5¢
-32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thanksforplayinCTR | Yesavg 75.8¢ | $222.53 | $145.49 | -$74.55 | 56% 689-551 (1240) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $19.69 | $20 | +$0.31 | 17% 4489-21974 (26463) |
 RayGuyCTR<$100 | Yes | $11.89 | $11.89 | +$10.24 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $0.28 | $6.44 | +$6.16 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $9.39 | $5.05 | -$4.35 | 31% 4455-9732 (14187) |
thanksforplayinCTRInvested
$222.53
Value
$145.49
PnL
-$74.55
Record
56%
689-551 (1240)
2B9S<$100Invested
$19.69
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.31
Record
17%
4489-21974 (26463)
RayGuyCTR<$100Invested
$11.89
Value
$11.89
PnL
+$10.24
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$6.44
PnL
+$6.16
Record
32%
8-17 (25)
Invested
$9.39
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$4.35
Record
31%
4455-9732 (14187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.