Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-03 House election by 20%-25%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 87¢ · $466 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$466.13
$227.86
37.1¢ → 87¢
+134% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
424h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gohst | Yesavg 42¢ | $156.43 | $324.23 | +$167.79 | 49% 763-795 (1558) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $5.88 | $83.57 | +$65.57 | 45% 3002-3695 (6697) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $19.01 | $45.25 | +$26.72 | 56% 718-566 (1284) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $37.01 | $8.42 | -$27.36 | 47% 4080-4639 (8719) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.2¢ | $10.15 | $4.66 | -$4.86 | 27% 610-1662 (2272) |
GohstInvested
$156.43
Value
$324.23
PnL
+$167.79
Record
49%
763-795 (1558)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$83.57
PnL
+$65.57
Record
45%
3002-3695 (6697)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$19.01
Value
$45.25
PnL
+$26.72
Record
56%
718-566 (1284)
Invested
$37.01
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$27.36
Record
47%
4080-4639 (8719)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$4.86
Record
27%
610-1662 (2272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.