Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 63¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$6.3K
$307.65
50.3¢ → 62.5¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $3.1K | +$574.98 | 55% 3001-2434 (5435) |
AN anoin123CTR | Noavg 50¢ | $2.3K | $1.8K | -$527.62 | 47% 480-535 (1015) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$198.52 | 45% 2377-2944 (5321) |
LA lava-lava | Yesavg 37¢ | $93.29 | $155.07 | +$61.77 | 43% 535-721 (1256) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $80 | $80 | -$0 | 42% 5357-7373 (12730) |
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Invested
$2,499.9
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$574.98
Record
55%
3001-2434 (5435)
Invested
$2,294
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$527.62
Record
47%
480-535 (1015)
Invested
$1,507.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$198.52
Record
45%
2377-2944 (5321)
Invested
$93.29
Value
$155.07
PnL
+$61.77
Record
43%
535-721 (1256)
Invested
$80
Value
$80
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
5357-7373 (12730)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.