Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $512 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$512.41
$57.32
82.5¢ → 82.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 82¢ | $259.63 | $259.63 | +$1.58 | 71% 6976-2782 (9758) |
 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $98.83 | $118.59 | +$19.77 | 55% 3010-2436 (5446) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $36.21 | $73.8 | +$37.58 | 54% 26686-22406 (49092) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $33.9 | $33 | -$0.9 | 61% 14390-9239 (23629) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.8¢ | $25.16 | $24.62 | -$0.54 | 57% 17871-13366 (31237) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $2.94 | $2.78 | -$0.17 | 25% 1619-4838 (6457) |
Invested
$259.63
Value
$259.63
PnL
+$1.58
Record
71%
6976-2782 (9758)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTRInvested
$98.83
Value
$118.59
PnL
+$19.77
Record
55%
3010-2436 (5446)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$36.21
Value
$73.8
PnL
+$37.58
Record
54%
26686-22406 (49092)
Invested
$33.9
Value
$33
PnL
-$0.9
Record
61%
14390-9239 (23629)
Invested
$25.16
Value
$24.62
PnL
-$0.54
Record
57%
17871-13366 (31237)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.78
PnL
-$0.17
Record
25%
1619-4838 (6457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.