Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

12.6¢ → 83.6¢

+563% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,637

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$0.11

Total Shares4

Combined PnL-$0.4

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 12.9¢	$52.78	$396.26	+$309.95	36% 101-179 (280)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 9¢	$44.44	$380.28	+$263.68	45% 3002-3695 (6697)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 1.1¢	$168.25	$266.75	+$261.85	40% 6562-9840 (16402)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yesavg 26.7¢	$71.97	$261.41	+$152.99	43% 15-20 (35)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 16.3¢	$19.62	$116.52	+$84.88	55% 18-15 (33)
G.Hchen<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$12	$82.9	+$70.9	57% 393-301 (694)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$27.04	$39.6	+$12.57	56% 718-566 (1284)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.69	$31.88	+$27.4	67% 27570-13865 (41435)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$0.51	$0.11	-$0.4	27% 610-1662 (2272)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$52.78

Value

$396.26

PnL

+$309.95

Record

36%

101-179 (280)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$44.44

Value

$380.28

PnL

+$263.68

Record

45%

3002-3695 (6697)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$168.25

Value

$266.75

PnL

+$261.85

Record

40%

6562-9840 (16402)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Yes

Invested

$71.97

Value

$261.41

PnL

+$152.99

Record

43%

15-20 (35)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$19.62

Value

$116.52

PnL

+$84.88

Record

55%

18-15 (33)

G.Hchen<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$82.9

PnL

+$70.9

Record

57%

393-301 (694)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.04

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$12.57

Record

56%

718-566 (1284)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$31.88

PnL

+$27.4

Record

67%

27570-13865 (41435)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.4

Record

27%

610-1662 (2272)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.1%

83.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.