Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 15%-20%?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $111 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$110.8

Combined PnL

-$28.44

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$109.17

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$14.06

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.62

Total Shares325

Combined PnL-$42.5

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$47.77	$47.48	-$0.02	14% 508-3080 (3588)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 70¢	$28.23	$39.8	+$11.57	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97¢	$14.55	$14.93	+$0.38	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.83	$6.97	+$2.14	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yes	$0.97	$0.97	-$17.91	54% 1673-1422 (3095)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$24.79	$0.56	-$24.23	— 7-10 (17)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$44.1	$0.1	-$0.36	84% 21-4 (25)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$47.77

Value

$47.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$28.23

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$11.57

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$2.14

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$17.91

Record

54%

1673-1422 (3095)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.79

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$24.23

Record

—

7-10 (17)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.36

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.