Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election by 40%-45%?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $69 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$68.63
$13.59
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $35.04 | $48.63 | +$13.59 | — 2-1 (3) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.01 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.