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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 0%-3%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
SIGNAL
📊
Open
Consensus Traders
0
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$394
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes25%
No76%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $397.19 | $394 | -$2.05 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81¢ | $319.14 | $297.47 | -$21.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $76.83 | $96.53 | +$19.7 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance26.3%
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$280.81
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
380.8
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xf3aeb294...146a7c
Slug
will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-ia-02-house-election-by-0-3