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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 18% or more?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
SIGNAL
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Open
Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes5%
No95%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance5.8%
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$1636.21
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
1736.2
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xd3ce668e...b85bff
Slug
will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-ia-01-house-election-by-18-or-more