Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-01 House election by 45%-50%?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 49¢ · $450 held · ended Nov 4

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$450.48

Combined PnL

-$39.72

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 48.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$418.76

Total Shares872

Combined PnL-$24.48

No2 traders

Total Value$31.72

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$15.24

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

632h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
thanksforplayinCTR	Yesavg 57.4¢	$279.11	$167.25	-$111.86	56% 719-567 (1286)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 26.9¢	$67.1	$119.77	+$54.6	55% 18-15 (33)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$39.96	$53.28	+$3.33	55% 5194-4278 (9472)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.8¢	$60.61	$40.59	+$15.55	45% 3009-3702 (6711)
DO donthackme<$100	No	$31.2	$31.2	-$15	68% 13272-6261 (19533)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.7¢	$13.47	$21.86	+$8.39	17% 4506-22058 (26564)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$10.28	$16	+$5.5	36% 102-180 (282)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 77¢	$0.76	$0.52	-$0.24	23% 1808-6060 (7868)

thanksforplayinCTR

Yes

Invested

$279.11

Value

$167.25

PnL

-$111.86

Record

56%

719-567 (1286)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$67.1

Value

$119.77

PnL

+$54.6

Record

55%

18-15 (33)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.96

Value

$53.28

PnL

+$3.33

Record

55%

5194-4278 (9472)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.61

Value

$40.59

PnL

+$15.55

Record

45%

3009-3702 (6711)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$31.2

Value

$31.2

PnL

-$15

Record

68%

13272-6261 (19533)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$21.86

PnL

+$8.39

Record

17%

4506-22058 (26564)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.28

Value

$16

PnL

+$5.5

Record

36%

102-180 (282)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.24

Record

23%

1808-6060 (7868)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

632h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.5%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$98.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

198.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.