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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election by 45% or more?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Nov 4
SIGNAL
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Open
Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes46%
No54%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance48.0%
46.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$108.13
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
208.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xa7b53341...d541c5
Slug
will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-hawaii-gubernatorial-election-by-45-or-more