Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 24¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$1.8K
$636.28
16.6¢ → 23.5¢
+42% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $687.74 | $779.98 | +$92.24 | 41% 76-111 (187) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 76¢ | $671.08 | $612 | +$300.03 | 45% 2389-2955 (5344) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $55.94 | $149.62 | +$93.68 | 54% 26646-22359 (49005) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $42.14 | $119.08 | +$76.95 | 52% 1669-1541 (3210) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $19.82 | $77.72 | +$57.9 | 59% 3601-2502 (6103) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $36.7 | $36.76 | +$0.06 | 43% 3029-3982 (7011) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $6.99 | $19.14 | +$12.15 | 72% 12558-4969 (17527) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $2.6 | $5.89 | +$3.29 | 36% 2143-3840 (5983) |
Invested
$687.74
Value
$779.98
PnL
+$92.24
Record
41%
76-111 (187)
Invested
$671.08
Value
$612
PnL
+$300.03
Record
45%
2389-2955 (5344)
balthazarCTRInvested
$55.94
Value
$149.62
PnL
+$93.68
Record
54%
26646-22359 (49005)
Invested
$42.14
Value
$119.08
PnL
+$76.95
Record
52%
1669-1541 (3210)
Invested
$19.82
Value
$77.72
PnL
+$57.9
Record
59%
3601-2502 (6103)
Invested
$36.7
Value
$36.76
PnL
+$0.06
Record
43%
3029-3982 (7011)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$19.14
PnL
+$12.15
Record
72%
12558-4969 (17527)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$3.29
Record
36%
2143-3840 (5983)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.