Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 55% or more?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 97.5¢

+150% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,077

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No4 traders

Total Value$141.05

Total Shares257

Combined PnL-$98.35

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yesavg 15.4¢	$535.94	$919.56	+$875.35	32% 8-17 (25)
HolyMoses7	Yesavg 98.6¢	$584.85	$563.87	-$9.07	50% 1753-1777 (3530)
thanksforplayin	Yesavg 15.1¢	$58.04	$435.91	+$377.87	56% 688-550 (1238)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$98.05	$97	-$1.05	17% 1307-6523 (7830)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$85.79	$40.75	-$45.04	19% 2850-12163 (15013)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 6.5¢	$663.46	$38.02	+$116.56	47% 4058-4558 (8616)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$23.55	$16.88	+$14.33	40% 6503-9752 (16255)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$35.2	$1.98	-$33.22	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$28.84	$1.31	-$19.04	45% 2956-3648 (6604)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Yes

Invested

$535.94

Value

$919.56

PnL

+$875.35

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

HolyMoses7

Yes

Invested

$584.85

Value

$563.87

PnL

-$9.07

Record

50%

1753-1777 (3530)

thanksforplayin

Yes

Invested

$58.04

Value

$435.91

PnL

+$377.87

Record

56%

688-550 (1238)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$98.05

Value

$97

PnL

-$1.05

Record

17%

1307-6523 (7830)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$85.79

Value

$40.75

PnL

-$45.04

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$663.46

Value

$38.02

PnL

+$116.56

Record

47%

4058-4558 (8616)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.55

Value

$16.88

PnL

+$14.33

Record

40%

6503-9752 (16255)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$33.22

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$28.84

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$19.04

Record

45%

2956-3648 (6604)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.