Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 18%-21%?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 84¢ · $408 held · ended Nov 4

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

Total Value

$408.3

Combined PnL

$297.95

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 84¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$162.86

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$27.72

Yes9 traders

Total Value$244.96

Total Shares1,476

Combined PnL+$325.67

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 95.6¢	$165.39	$144.45	-$22.72	53% 23478-20703 (44181)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$40.17	$133.27	+$235.5	48% 1351-1487 (2838)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$16.38	$71.94	+$45.92	45% 2963-3662 (6625)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$23.41	$18.41	-$5	52% 30791-28934 (59725)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.25	$12.22	+$16.06	32% 81-170 (251)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.16	$9.09	+$7.93	32% 8-17 (25)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$2.06	$6.07	+$6.59	55% 17-14 (31)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$2.36	$5	+$6.15	72% 13767-5236 (19003)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.4	$4.7	+$4.3	67% 4313-2143 (6456)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.05	$2.48	+$3.07	67% 27459-13813 (41272)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$0.19	$0.19	+$0.15	47% 3793-4263 (8056)

cigarettes

Invested

$165.39

Value

$144.45

PnL

-$22.72

Record

53%

23478-20703 (44181)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$40.17

Value

$133.27

PnL

+$235.5

Record

48%

1351-1487 (2838)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.38

Value

$71.94

PnL

+$45.92

Record

45%

2963-3662 (6625)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$23.41

Value

$18.41

PnL

-$5

Record

52%

30791-28934 (59725)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$16.06

Record

32%

81-170 (251)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$7.93

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$6.59

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

PnL

+$6.15

Record

72%

13767-5236 (19003)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$4.3

Record

67%

4313-2143 (6456)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$3.07

Record

67%

27459-13813 (41272)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

3793-4263 (8056)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.5%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.