Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.4K
$386.28
4.1¢ → 5.5¢
+35% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
711h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
17 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $306.82 | $640.15 | +$333.33 | 11% 20-165 (185) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $518.08 | $575.95 | +$57.87 | 47% 387-441 (828) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $207 | $172.5 | -$17.25 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $11.32 | $23.65 | +$12.33 | 45% 1906-2352 (4258) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $5.86 | $5.86 | +$0 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
Invested
$306.82
Value
$640.15
PnL
+$333.33
Record
11%
20-165 (185)
Invested
$518.08
Value
$575.95
PnL
+$57.87
Record
47%
387-441 (828)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$207
Value
$172.5
PnL
-$17.25
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$11.32
Value
$23.65
PnL
+$12.33
Record
45%
1906-2352 (4258)
Invested
$5.86
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.