Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 12¢ · $522 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$522.27

Combined PnL

$80.52

Smart Money Entry

8.9¢ → 11.5¢

+30% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$522.27

Total Shares4,954

Combined PnL+$80.52

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 9¢	$386.96	$451.5	+$64.54	47% 217-240 (457)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$45.03	$45.03	-$2.05	41% 1267-1801 (3068)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$6.05	$24.15	+$18.1	44% 1796-2245 (4041)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.59	$1.59	-$0.07	57% 3046-2291 (5337)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$386.96

Value

$451.5

PnL

+$64.54

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.03

Value

$45.03

PnL

-$2.05

Record

41%

1267-1801 (3068)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.05

Value

$24.15

PnL

+$18.1

Record

44%

1796-2245 (4041)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

3046-2291 (5337)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.