Will the Chicago Bears make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$211.19

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 74.5¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,850

Combined PnL+$344.01

No1 trader

Total Value$161.78

Total Shares634

Combined PnL-$132.82

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI milkteaboba	Yesavg 53.1¢	$484.27	$679.44	+$195.17	68% 40-19 (59)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 67.7¢	$751	$253.27	+$18.87	50% 1694-1678 (3372)
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Yesavg 64¢	$172.08	$200.32	+$28.23	43% 467-620 (1087)
extractive-manateeCTR	Noavg 36.3¢	$107.87	$161.78	-$132.82	33% 523-1059 (1582)
ND ndb1	Yesavg 47¢	$92.18	$146.18	+$54	66% 882-453 (1335)
TimeTraveler<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$51.05	$98.79	+$47.74	41% 1997-2832 (4829)

milkteaboba

Yes

Invested

$484.27

Value

$679.44

PnL

+$195.17

Record

68%

40-19 (59)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$751

Value

$253.27

PnL

+$18.87

Record

50%

1694-1678 (3372)

0x53eCc53E7

Yes

Invested

$172.08

Value

$200.32

PnL

+$28.23

Record

43%

467-620 (1087)

extractive-manateeCTR

Invested

$107.87

Value

$161.78

PnL

-$132.82

Record

33%

523-1059 (1582)

ndb1

Yes

Invested

$92.18

Value

$146.18

PnL

+$54

Record

66%

882-453 (1335)

TimeTraveler<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.05

Value

$98.79

PnL

+$47.74

Record

41%

1997-2832 (4829)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.