Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the December meeting?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 57¢ · $712 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$712.26
-$25.64
56.6¢ → 57.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
74h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $587.84 | $496.5 | -$91.33 | 49% 552-581 (1133) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 40¢ | $125.99 | $181.13 | +$56.95 | 53% 23478-20703 (44181) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100 | Yesavg 55.8¢ | $15.62 | $16.1 | +$0.48 | 50% 290-286 (576) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yes | $9.9 | $9.9 | +$5.34 | 67% 27459-13813 (41272) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Yesavg 33.1¢ | $3.31 | $5.75 | +$2.5 | 36% 5883-10617 (16500) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.88 | +$0.42 | 19% 2852-12176 (15028) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$587.84
Value
$496.5
PnL
-$91.33
Record
49%
552-581 (1133)
Invested
$125.99
Value
$181.13
PnL
+$56.95
Record
53%
23478-20703 (44181)
Invested
$15.62
Value
$16.1
PnL
+$0.48
Record
50%
290-286 (576)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$5.34
Record
67%
27459-13813 (41272)
Invested
$3.31
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$2.5
Record
36%
5883-10617 (16500)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.42
Record
19%
2852-12176 (15028)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.