Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 96¢ · $256 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$256.18
$3.06
92.8¢ → 96¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
67h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheWindKnowsmyName | Noavg 91.5¢ | $608.38 | $184.39 | +$16.88 | 51% 290-283 (573) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $51.5 | $50 | -$1.5 | 14% 513-3102 (3615) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $25 | $8.79 | -$0.11 | 44% 2233-2896 (5129) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $17.84 | $7.9 | -$9.94 | 53% 23170-20401 (43571) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.43 | $4.46 | +$3.03 | 53% 8428-7501 (15929) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.4 | $0.4 | -$0 | 39% 5792-9037 (14829) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $29.54 | $0.24 | -$5.3 | 33% 479-988 (1467) |
Invested
$608.38
Value
$184.39
PnL
+$16.88
Record
51%
290-283 (573)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$51.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$1.5
Record
14%
513-3102 (3615)
Invested
$25
Value
$8.79
PnL
-$0.11
Record
44%
2233-2896 (5129)
Invested
$17.84
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$9.94
Record
53%
23170-20401 (43571)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$4.46
PnL
+$3.03
Record
53%
8428-7501 (15929)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
5792-9037 (14829)
Invested
$29.54
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$5.3
Record
33%
479-988 (1467)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.