Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 38¢ · $291 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$291.24
-$61.42
48.5¢ → 37.5¢
-23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
62h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $323.43 | $122.9 | -$33.77 | 53% 23170-20401 (43571) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 76.5¢ | $180.37 | $95.49 | -$22.32 | 41% 6394-9370 (15764) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 76.4¢ | $45.12 | $36.64 | -$5.24 | 20% 2785-10964 (13749) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $86.45 | $20.01 | -$1.19 | 14% 513-3102 (3615) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $10.1 | $12.4 | +$2.3 | 53% 8428-7501 (15929) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $10 | $3.8 | -$1.2 | 39% 5792-9037 (14829) |
Invested
$323.43
Value
$122.9
PnL
-$33.77
Record
53%
23170-20401 (43571)
HaradwaithInvested
$180.37
Value
$95.49
PnL
-$22.32
Record
41%
6394-9370 (15764)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$45.12
Value
$36.64
PnL
-$5.24
Record
20%
2785-10964 (13749)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$86.45
Value
$20.01
PnL
-$1.19
Record
14%
513-3102 (3615)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$2.3
Record
53%
8428-7501 (15929)
Invested
$10
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$1.2
Record
39%
5792-9037 (14829)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.