Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$895

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 99.9¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,397

Combined PnL+$122.51

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.95

Total Shares2,614

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 93.7¢	$882.83	$754.59	+$57.62	30% 35274-83611 (118885)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 98.5¢	$859.52	$753.73	+$1.32	40% 3992-6073 (10065)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.9¢	$479.48	$479.28	-$0.2	47% 47397-53674 (101071)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 86.4¢	$229	$264.66	+$35.66	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$75.77	$98.09	+$22.33	23% 8528-28959 (37487)
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.8¢	$155	$29.96	+$0.01	37% 16933-29287 (46220)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 57¢	$7.77	$13.54	+$5.77	52% 8995-8175 (17170)
JO JokerTheClownCTR	Yesavg 44.9¢	$618.11	$2.08	-$616.03	44% 4193-5387 (9580)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$264	$1.2	-$262.8	36% 414-725 (1139)
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$129.6	$0.54	-$129.06	54% 1523-1280 (2803)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$9.65	$0.09	-$9.56	38% 328-538 (866)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.1	$0.04	-$0.06	22% 3328-11802 (15130)

balthazar

Invested

$882.83

Value

$754.59

PnL

+$57.62

Record

30%

35274-83611 (118885)

haveagoodday

Invested

$859.52

Value

$753.73

PnL

+$1.32

Record

40%

3992-6073 (10065)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$479.48

Value

$479.28

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

47397-53674 (101071)

cigarettes

Invested

$229

Value

$264.66

PnL

+$35.66

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$75.77

Value

$98.09

PnL

+$22.33

Record

23%

8528-28959 (37487)

god83743894

Invested

$155

Value

$29.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

16933-29287 (46220)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$7.77

Value

$13.54

PnL

+$5.77

Record

52%

8995-8175 (17170)

JokerTheClownCTR

Yes

Invested

$618.11

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$616.03

Record

44%

4193-5387 (9580)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$264

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$262.8

Record

36%

414-725 (1139)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$129.6

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$129.06

Record

54%

1523-1280 (2803)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.65

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$9.56

Record

38%

328-538 (866)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.06

Record

22%

3328-11802 (15130)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.