Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will The Bride! get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.41

Combined PnL

-$308.93

Smart Money Entry

4.5¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$3.41

Total Shares6,826

Combined PnL-$308.93

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$94.27	$1.04	-$93.24	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$51.34	$0.56	-$50.77	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$41.99	$0.46	-$41.52	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$40.5	$0.45	-$40.05	63% 12940-7724 (20664)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$29.77	$0.33	-$29.44	43% 2778-3616 (6394)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$10.41	$0.11	-$10.3	31% 1407-3191 (4598)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.01	$0.1	-$8.91	44% 4029-5217 (9246)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.61	$0.09	-$8.52	17% 221-1065 (1286)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.32	$0.09	-$8.23	24% 666-2082 (2748)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.16	$0.06	-$5.1	30% 320-759 (1079)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.16	$0.06	-$5.1	30% 367-838 (1205)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$52.87	$0.04	-$5.74	55% 6024-5008 (11032)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.12	$0.01	-$1.11	28% 212-555 (767)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	35% 558-1046 (1604)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.27

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$93.24

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.34

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$50.77

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.99

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$41.52

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.5

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$40.05

Record

63%

12940-7724 (20664)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.77

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$29.44

Record

43%

2778-3616 (6394)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.41

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$10.3

Record

31%

1407-3191 (4598)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.01

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$8.91

Record

44%

4029-5217 (9246)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.61

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.52

Record

17%

221-1065 (1286)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.32

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.23

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.1

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.1

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.87

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.74

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.11

Record

28%

212-555 (767)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.